Clients occasionally ask for projections or forecasts about future ranks and organic traffic. While I can lean on decades of measured successes, SEO’s predictive precision is elusive at best. I used to respond to clients with a shorter (more dismissive) version of the spiel that follows here. Like a fine cheesy wine, I’m getting better with age?
Guesswork vs. Science
Unlike other digital marketing strategies, organic search performance is uniquely dependent on two highly unpredictable factors: the capricious nature of search engine algorithms and the ever-changing tactics and emergence of competitors. Thicken the broth with the fickle human-behavior elements in any marketing equation—and the task becomes even more complex. Sprinkle AI’s growing influence on SERPs into the cauldron, and we’ve conjured a forecasting fiasco. Offering detailed divinations worth a dime in SEO is not just challenging – it’s nearly impossible and not worth your time.
The Fluctuating Whims of Search Engines
Google’s neverending algorithm changes are a fundamental challenge in SEO forecasting. Ranking factors and SERP features sometimes change drastically and often without warning. Just as exometeorologists struggle to predict the weather at the equator of Gliese 581g, SEO practitioners can’t accurately forecast the impact of these algorithmic shifts. Sometimes Google makes the future seem 20 light-years away.
The Unpredictable Chessboard of SEO Competitors
The competitive landscape in SEO is in constant flux, significantly affecting the ability to forecast. Competitors may not be actively investing in SEO and then suddenly start, or those already investing might significantly increase their budgets. Furthermore, new competitors can enter the scene anytime, each bringing unique strategies and resources. This ever-shifting dynamic, where the number and nature of players can change rapidly, makes the complex task of accurately predicting SEO outcomes a challenge akin to playing a game where the rules and number of players change without notice.
Past Performance: A Guide, Not a Crystal Ball
While I’m willing to share redacted charts and trends from other projects, these reports are not forecasts but reflections of past achievements under specific conditions. Using historical data and past performance can usually provide deep, valuable insights, but these are not accurate predictive tools. They offer a glance at what has been, not what will be. (Verbose pedantic me wants to type more here, but I think that covers it.)
For Comparison: The Predictable Nature of Paid Search & Hiring
Paid Search (PPC) is more straightforward: increased spend typically translates to more clicks, making it easier to predict. Unlike SEO, PPC campaigns offer immediate feedback and clear metrics, such as click-through rates and conversion data, directly linked to budget and targeting choices. Transparency which allows for more accurate forecasting, as changes in spend and strategy yield relatively predictable results. In contrast, SEO’s dependence on nebulous external factors like algorithm updates and competitor actions makes such direct correlations and predictions challenging. (Sidenote: Want more out of your organic search Google Analytics data? Try Keyword Hero.)
What was that about hiring being predictable?! We’re able to manipulate hiring processes enough to ensure better outcomes. When refining applicant screening, we’re like chefs in a controlled kitchen, adjusting recipes and discarding bad apples for predictable dishes. Whereas SEO projections are like cooking on a storm-tossed ship being boarded by pirates! Despite having some valuable tools and knowledge, the unpredictable waves (Google’s whims), pirates (new competitor strategies), and shifting winds (market trends) make accurately predicting some SEO outcomes comparatively difficult. …All the more reason to ensure you’re working with a good crew! (Nod to AI for help with the kooky analogy.)
Conclusion: Embracing the Unpredictable
If we assume Google’s algorithms and SERPs won’t change and all competitors’ SEO efforts remain static, we might be able to make accurate-ish predictions about that future. But why bother digging deep into fallacies based on false premises?
Shall we instead provide a broad spectrum of high / med / low prognostications to ensure the future will land somewhere in the scope? No. If you value that sort of busy work, it’s worth reconsidering your approach. Effective SEO strategy focuses on actionable insights and adaptability, not on casting a wide net of vague predictions.
Forecasting SEO is like predicting where a leaf will land. A tall task even without a gentle breeze or a wild storm. The variables are too numerous, and the calculations are ultimately not worth the effort. Focus on adaptability and swift reaction to changes, building resilient and flexible strategies rather than on the elusive pursuit of predictions. Who cares where that leaf lands anyway? Don’t they have something better to do for the marketing department? Why are they looking at that leaf? 😉
Don’t fret the future; measure the now and reflect on the past to ensure tomorrow is a better SEO day.
A postscript: Admittedly, we can predict some SEO stuff. But not the stuff people usually want on projections. Dan Dreifort co-founded a service to scrape actionable data from Reddit. It’s in beta. …Not even a logo or public-ready frontend yet. But we’re in biz. Oh boy! He only accepts 1.547522 new SEO/UX clients per year these days. There’s only one of him, and clients stick around a long time. Send him a note via the fficient.com form if you want to chat.
Dan Dreifort 